Rebels and Horned Frogs square off in MWC matchup

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/14/2012 - Fort Worth, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Locked in a three-way tie for first place in the Mountain West Conference standings entering the week, the 11th-ranked UNLV Runnin' Rebels try to give themselves some breathing room as they take on the TCU Horned Frogs at Daniel-Meyer Coliseum in Fort Worth this evening.

UNLV, which is tied with both San Diego State and New Mexico with a record of 6-2 in league play, avenged the loss earlier this season to the Aztecs by claiming a hard-fought 65-63 win in the most recent meeting over the weekend at the Thomas & Mack Center. The Rebels, winners of six of their last seven outings, have matched their highest placement in the AP poll from earlier this season, an achievement not seen in Las Vegas in nearly two decades.

As for the Horned Frogs, a group which is tied with both Wyoming and Colorado State for fourth place in the MWC at the moment, they came away with a 75-71 win over Colorado State on Saturday night, snapping a two-game slide in order to get back to .500 in league play at 4-4. The home victory kept TCU perfect in four tries versus MWC foes in Fort Worth, 11-2 overall in 2011-12.

The Rebels blew the doors off TCU in the first meeting of the season last month in Las Vegas by a score of 101-78. Mike Moser, who just earned MWC Player of the Week honors for the fourth time this season on Monday, posted 16 points and 15 rebounds in the first matchup, one of three UNLV players to score in double figures as the team shot not only 57.8 percent from the floor, but also 11-of-21 behind the three-point line.

With the overwhelming win the first time around, UNLV now owns a 17-2 advantage in the all-time series with the Horned Frogs, taking six straight contests.

The Rebels should have had the meeting with San Diego State in the bag on Saturday, leading by 13 points in the second half, but still the locals had to come up with three steals in the final 42 seconds in order to secure the two- point decision at the Thomas & Mack. Moser came up a rebound shy of yet another double-double as he tallied 19 points, but he still found the time to post six steals, four blocked shots and a pair of assists, against just a single turnover. Oscar Bellfield and Brice Massamba responded with 15 and 12 points, respectively, while Anthony Marshall compensated for just 2-of-9 shooting from the floor by handing out eight assists and grabbing six rebounds. Moser has been on a mission for the Rebels all season long and after his performance on Saturday he might finally be getting some much-deserved national recognition with his 14.7 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. Throw in 51 steals, 24 blocked shots and 60 assists and there are few players in the nation who can duplicate his versatility. Chace Stanback (13.3 ppg) helps to shoulder some of the scoring burden thanks to his 44.3 percent accuracy behind the three-point line, but the team as a whole is still shooting only 36.3 percent out on the perimeter as they generate 79.5 ppg.

The Horned Frogs trailed by 10 points late in the first half against Colorado State after allowing the Rams to connect on better than 57 percent from the floor, but the second half was a different story and TCU was able to salvage the close call after surviving eight ties and just as many lead changes. Craig Williams gave the hosts a huge boost off the bench as he tallied 20 points, shooting 4-of-5 behind the three-point line, the team converting 12of-27 beyond the arc collectively. Hank Thorns tallied 15 points and six assists, J.R. Cadot 14 points and seven boards and Garlon Green 10 points for the victors. In the last six games the Frogs have had five different leading scorers which means either they are potentially balanced on offense or that there's too much inconsistency that prevents the group from counting on just one player to lead them on a regular basis. It seems like the answer might be the latter since Thorns (12.9 ppg) leads the team in scoring and assists (111) but is shooting just 38.4 percent from the floor and that has brought the entire team down to only 43.8 percent for the season.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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